Trends in the Voluntary Carbon Market in 2026

 
   Key Takeaways

The Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) is entering a new phase, shaped by rising expectations around corporate responsibility, more stringent quality requirements, and increasing alignment with compliance markets. Ongoing developments in standards, regulation, and reporting frameworks point to a market that is becoming more structured and transparent, with clearer rules on integrity, impact, and accountability.

Together, these shifts signal a maturation of climate contribution practices, moving away from fragmented approaches toward more consistent, credible, and long-term engagement.

SBTi: Ongoing Emissions Responsibility

A major signal of this transition comes from the draft version of the SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2, which introduces the concept of ongoing emissions responsibility. This framework replaces Beyond Value Chain Mitigation and interim CO₂ removal targets, reframing climate contribution as an optional recognition rather than a discretionary add-on.

If adopted, companies will be able to choose between two statuses. Under the Recognised pathway, businesses take responsibility for at least 1% of their Scope 1–3 emissions, either by delivering verified mitigation outcomes or by applying a minimum internal carbon price of $20 per tonne and directing the resulting budget toward eligible climate actions. The Leadership pathway requires a carbon price of at least $80 per tonne on all ongoing emissions and the use of proceeds to fund mitigation activities equivalent to at least 40% of those emissions. In both cases, eligible activities include high-quality reduction and removal credits.

EU 2040 Targets and Flexibility

At the policy level, the European Union’s 2040 climate target accelerates market evolution. The EU has committed to a 90% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels, while introducing flexibility mechanisms that acknowledge the role of carbon markets.

From 2036, high-quality international credits may be used for up to 5% of 1990 EU net emissions, alongside the integration of domestic permanent removals under the Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming (CRCF) Regulation into the EU Emissions Trading System. This further reinforces convergence between voluntary and compliance markets and raises questions around long-term supply and pricing for buyers.

Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (IC-VCM) and Credit Quality

Quality frameworks are gaining importance through the IC-VCM, which is increasingly shaping expectations in the supply side of the voluntary market. With ICROA expected to cease activities in 2026, the IC-VCM’s Core Carbon Principles are becoming a key reference point.

However, high-quality supply remains constrained. Only around 51 million credits had received CCP approval as of December 2025, accounting for just 4% of total issuance in 2024. This gap illustrates both the ambition of the framework and the limited availability of credits meeting these criteria in the near term.

Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement

Developments under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, particularly Article 6.4 a.k.a. The Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM), remains incremental. To date, only one methodology, landfill gas, has been approved.

While UN oversight provides institutional credibility, it does not automatically ensure high quality. Lessons from the Clean Development Mechanism continue to shape a cautious approach, with emphasis on robust methodologies, conservative baselines, and strong governance. 

CSRD and Corporate Disclosure

Proposed changes under the draft simplified ESRS E1 clarify how companies should report carbon credit use under the CSRD. References to corresponding adjustments have been removed, as they were misleading in a voluntary contribution context, and distinctions between EU and non-EU projects have been eliminated.

Companies must still report climate contributions separately from emissions and reduction targets, explain the role of carbon credits in their climate strategies, and disclose the quality criteria applied. Reporting will cover both credits cancelled during the year and those planned for future cancellation, with differentiation between reduction and removal activities.

From Contribution to Responsibility

Taken together, these developments point to a VCM that is becoming more disciplined and more closely integrated into corporate climate strategies. The emphasis is shifting from symbolic participation toward measurable responsibility, long-term planning, and credible impact.

For buyers, this means operating in a market where quality, governance, and regulatory alignment increasingly define value, and where climate contribution is no longer optional, but foundational.

At ClimateSeed, we help organizations build effective carbon project portfolios aligned with their global strategy. Contact us to learn how you can contribute to a credible and meaningful climate strategy.